Will the real Russian people please stand up?

Imagining how Ukrainians must feel right now both sickens and angers. I watch the Putin invasion of Ukraine from the sidelines, feeling inept. Do the people of Russia really want this?

The west also needs to look inwards. The proliferation of dirty money — and hence power — into western systems has corrupted the principles of what the west should stand for. Greed often trumps integrity. This disease is everywhere. It has tainted resolve to do the right thing when needed. Time has also healed conscience when it shouldn’t. Can we learn a lesson?

An Empowered Putin

Our world is in wash-rinse-repeat mode on matters of democracy, human rights and justice. Hitler — Annexing Austria — Munich Agreement — Invading Poland — World War II ring any bells?

February-March 2014: Russia takes Crimea. The effective response from the world: “no problem, carry on”. What is happening now was always probable from that point. Empowering a bully has a tried and tested outcome.

We should note that this is not the action of a country per se, but of one man: Vladimir Putin. One man that has changed the world forever (wash-rinse-repeat). Recent speeches and comments by the Russian premier show a dangerous mind. Hysterical even. Vast misrepresentation, distorted truths and sheer lies mislead the Russian people. He hopes his people will follow, will support. But does he care if they don’t?

Is this invasion what Russians — the everyday Russian people — want? Sure, sycophants of Putin and the greedy elite stay quiet or openly support the invasion. They will likely have a wealth-and-power escape hatch. But normal people, with hearts and feelings, would not want this.

As a believer that humankind is intrinsically decent, I’m certain there are more good than bad people in Russia. The majority will not fall for Putin’s tricks. Not any more. Not when he decides to kill Russia’s ‘brothers and sisters’ simply because they exist. Because they wanted freedom from people like him. Because they took back control of their country.

Power of the People

The reporting coming out of Russia shows anti-war protests and arrests. Not that many protests, it seems. Yet. I get it. Protesting scares people. Or rather the consequences of doing something that upsets Putin scares people.

The police officers and soldiers supporting an illegal war have blood on their hands. It’s no wonder many cover their faces when doing their ‘duty’. They know. Inside, they know. They are humans too. Likely they are also scared to stand up to the regime Putin has crafted.

On paper, Russia is a democracy. Based on this ‘fact’ the people should be able to dictate who governs them. The people should be deciding whether to invade another country when there is no threat. Not one man on a power trip surrounded by cronies to reinforce hysterical decisions.

From the outside looking in, true democracy seems out of reach in Russia right now. Meaningful political opposition gets crushed. Can this change? We can only hope. Ukraine did it. So can Russia.

Nothing is perfect — look at the US and UK — embarrassing political landscapes over recent years. [Sorry to my friends in UK and US, but you have to admit these last few years have been a bit of a farce. No wonder Putin thinks he can get away with this horror]. But Putin’s rants and actions this week make the US and UK political scene look normal by comparison.

We can only hope that the real Russian people find their voice, and find a path to a working democracy. Good people will prevail.

Of course, leadership change is unlikely anytime soon. Until then, the Russian people will have to bear much of the impact of sanctions. Sanction ramp-up continues (better late than never). It will only really hurt Putin when the gas and oil revenues decline — some way off, but eventually. What on earth did the west think would happen when they ceded major energy dependency to this guy?

It’s a Yin and Yang world

Unfortunately, good doesn’t look so good without the bad. And there are some very, very bad leaders in this world.

The global geopolitical landscape looks set for more conflict and change. China (passively?) sides with Russia. Powerful buddies. Them and us. Good and bad? It’s not that black and white.

Look at the strategies employed by Xi Jinping. The power grab in the South China Sea. The posturing over Taiwan. Broken promises in Hong Kong. The human rights abuses widely reported. Again, one powerful man taking his country on a dark moral path. Is that what the real people of China want?

Ultra-bad leaders have much in common. Power, ego, and a desire to be written into history ‘for the sake of their country’ chief amongst them. The world needs more leaders that resonate with their people’s real needs and desires. Balanced. Fair. Just. These leaders are out there. Citizens need to find and activate them. We saw this happen in Ukraine — they were living a new chapter in their history.

Good from Bad

A primary concern of Putin appears to be the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. With five NATO countries already bordering Russia this is odd. NATO is a defensive structure with multi-party control of major military action. There is no threat. Here’s a great fact check from NATO.

Through the horrors we are seeing in Ukraine there are some positives.

Putin has now demonstrated to other potential NATO members that there is safety in numbers. NATO membership is likely to grow as a result. Good for NATO, bad for power-crazy leaders.

The events of this week have led to greater coordination and alignment of western powers. Although NATO cannot send troops, members are providing lethal aid and other essential support. There is a real unification of spirit in support of Ukraine. Spirit builds resolve and hardens future decisions.

All the good people of the world are behind Ukraine. We all hope for a positive outcome, that reason and decency will prevail.

Putin has done himself no favours. Even Viktor Orban, Hungarian PM, is condemning Putin’s actions. Will Putin’s cronies at home start to turn as the mud thickens? Will shocking events yet to come cause major pushback in Russia?

It is likely that Putin wants a puppet government in Ukraine following occupation. Like Belarus. It’s also possible that he will annex Eastern Ukraine as a valuable corridor to Crimea. His actions and comments (rants) thus far suggest as much.

Even if he accomplishes these actions Ukraine will remain unsettled. Remember, Ukrainians already ousted one bad leader (Viktor Yanukovych now lives in Russia). Resistance will continue and the support of everyday Russian people will wane. Combined with persistent sanctions, Putin’s grasp on power may become fragile.

Will the real Russian people then be able to stand up?

It’s a shame that Putin sees democracy as a threat. If the west ever rewards Putin — or any other hysterical world leader — with another free pass, God help us all.

A lesson learnt, or wash-rinse-repeat?